3 .- Analysis. North Africa and the Middle East white Rebellions
The Iranian project, sovereign defense and nuclear deterrence obtaining a better geopolitical position, can found at this juncture of popular rebellion cross the best time to take the rage of the nations and lead to cohesion claims Shia
By Alberto Ramos Garbiras (*) Some media referred to the riots in Tunisia and Egypt with the label of white revolutions. A similar situation is occurring in Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Bahrain, Iran and other countries in the area. Massive demonstrations are rejecting long dictatorships, where individual freedoms have been alibis, poverty, unemployment and lack of opportunities have expanded.
speed is not because they involve actions armed apparatus that promote to transform social, economic, legal and policy of a country. In this case the dawn of 2011 the civil society is rising in the Arab part of emergency measures against prolonged and rising unemployment armed unchallenged. So are white uprisings, not bloody, but effective. Do not start with bloody acts and no armed groups leading actors claims. The bloody events are time to time, are not constant and are caused by the infiltrators, the bailiffs. And most striking is the demonized Arab youth in the West for its features, such as terrorists, without leaving their guns at public places, are promoting the social and political changes with impressive speed.
mobilizations are not promote political parties, although not unrelated to them, is civil society to be mobilized, calls through social networks and is expressed initially without violence. Violent acts are presented by the clash with the military forces or by infiltrating provocateurs sent by the regime which fears losing power, as happened in Tunisia and Egypt. Are rebellions in political science are treated in most cases as a manifestation of rejection of established authority, with seedlings, rallies, strikes, marches, civil, strikes, riots, uprisings of the population dissatisfied; involve civil disobedience. If not treated the claims could be the seed of a general insubordination and even a civil war or revolution. But what is the difference between rebellion and revolution? Nobody has said more accurately that Ortega y Gasset. "The rebellion is rising against the abuses, the revolution against the applications. The rebellion fight to reduce the abuse of a political system, the revolution to smash the system ".
Héctor Farina said that rebellious attitude is always a beginning to change, but this does not imply that the action is revolutionary. From rebel to revolutionary is a considerable distance, but each other related by ties of the principle of opposition to a situation, model or system. Octavio Paz says that a similar term is "revolt" with respect to a collective movement against something or someone, as a mechanism for responding to a figure of power. In contrast, the "revolution" is the radical change in a state of affairs and may be the result of rebellion and revolt converted a new system, replacing the previous one. The revolution is a transformation that goes beyond the failure and can occur in many areas such as political, economic, social or cultural, among others. (Www.vivaparaguay.com).
The Egyptian case
as the Mubarak government, backed with an ironclad military position underpinned a prolonged state of emergency, a variable state of emergency, they lose legitimacy and the population does not support them because the institutional makeup is not to endure the life assurance daily. Paradoxically, the unit of force that holds a state based on the legitimacy and acceptance of successive governments, or replacing the previous. But when the Government continues, the unit of force becomes the holder of authoritarianism. The law makes it effective force, but when the institutions work with acceptance. One thing is valid law in force, another is the right thing without acceptance by the wearing of a government, there becomes repellent force, and its actions without the consent of the majority leads to state terror.
In North Africa and the Persian Gulf society civil is pushing hard to get out of the authoritarian states of emergency governmental restriction or governments in these countries want to move to a stage of constitutional reforms with democratic institutional transformations. We are seeing live on international channels and the Internet, the spread of Western democracy in those states with entrenched leaders entrenched in power for 20, 30, or 40; transformations with white rebellion, the spine of Western constitutionalism , out of kingdoms, emirates, and pharaohs survivors. English analyst Luis Prados, in a column titled "Thomas Jefferson and the average Moon ", made this reflection:" Where are now the Euro-Mediterranean summits and all the rhetoric? Where that Alliance of Civilizations in the Turkish and Persian involving Arabs and missing cameo beyond the Arab League? How was it possible that Ben Ali and Mubarak, skilled and ruthlessly dictators and kleptocrats, were members of the Socialist International? "The question is valid because in the policy of alliance of civilizations to oppose the clash of barbarism, these two leaders , Tunisia and Egypt, were taken as Democrats, and people took them out for just the opposite.
Mubarak's resignation does not ipso facto guarantee of the functioning of democracy. The military built on the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces were validated by the same ruler to keep the octogenarian all contacts with the power and to withdraw without judicial incursions, and the cabinet which also manages the outgoing president left installed.
The Egyptian constitution does not place limits on presidential re-election, which is why despite being a republic, the military source excessive presidentialism led to authoritarianism. And a "democracy" Multi-party statement, but in practice a single party dominates. The reform of 2007 strengthened the powers of the President acting as Pharaoh. The Egyptian constitution functioned as a shield to authoritarianism. The constitutional reform undertaken quickly with the appointment of a constitutional reform committee is a good sign that the military apparently not stay in power by co-opting another authoritarian military.
After 1979 the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in Egypt. It follows that the fear of the Egyptian ruling class and the military who accompanied Mubarak himself, the eventual rise the power of Islamic radicals, using the social explosion unleashed. Thus one could envisage a constitutional light, limited, not enlarging the political forces of the opposition.
Distinguished Professors and lawyers are recognized in the Reform Committee, including: Al Beshri, Atef al-Banna, Hassanein Abdel Aal, Mohamed Bahi Yunes, Sobhi Saleh and judges Mahi Sami, Hasan al Badrawi and Hatem Bagata. However, the urgency for reform is not consistent with the need for a new constitutional architecture of Egypt. The eight eminent jurists also have another corset: We confine reform to raise the five articles of the Constitution, all subject to the consent of the Supreme Council before the referendum. The Committee has powers like a Constituent Assembly, because the military leadership dissolved the parliament on February 13 and suspended the Constitution. The newly elected Parliament was to many questions by the clipping was the participation of opposition forces. The instance that modulate, approve, amend the rules of reform proposed by academics and lawyers, is the military leadership then put the reforms in a referendum to approve or disapprove.
The Madrid newspaper El País note that "The reforms that the opposition and demonstrators demanding more insistently are limited to a maximum of two terms now unlimited reelection of the President, to eliminate many of the requirements that are unachievable required to be a presidential candidate, restore judicial control to prevent fraud, to eliminate the prohibition on the present religious-based parties and ultimately eliminate the Basic Law is anti-terrorism legislation to perpetuate the state of emergency in force since 1981 allow trials of civilians in military courts. " Press freedom is another desire of the Egyptians.
Tantawi military commander announced that he would be ten days, which is insufficient but the white rebel leaders remain between optimists and skeptics. This skepticism is because the electoral calendar for September, and in seven months, many things can change, then reform must rejuvenate democracy are static.
Mubarak remained in power since 1981 with a moderate image and good fixer from the complex geopolitics of the area. As a staunch ally of the U.S.. In Egypt there was no coup, the removal Mubarak came under pressure from the masses, the rise of military leaders sought to ease the protests, providing a peaceful transition to constitutional reform, and allow a bloodless exit to the President, without trial immediately.
Libya, Bahrain and Iran
In Libya, the army since the beginning of the riots began firing at protesters to scare the crowd, spreading panic and to deter others do not go to protest. An act of state terror against peaceful demonstrators took to the streets not only Tripoli, Benghazi but, Jalu and ten other cities. Mr. Muammar Gaddafi, built in power for 42 years, decided to attack with thugs, snipers and shelled the rebels, in an act of desperation to keep the throne did when he overthrew King Idris Senussi, in 1969. Gaddafi is the sole ruler of this area has not pro-American.
In Bahrain, a bonsai show of Arab social explosion against despotism and Bonapartism, the people in the street of Manama has said it accepts the system of constitutional monarchy, but with fewer powers for the King Hamad Al Khalifa. So consider the reform of 2003 was low because the monarchy comes from the eighteenth century. Shiite MPs demand and the transition to democracy. Bahrain is an emirate where there is a U.S. military base (the Fifth Fleet) and is bordered by Saudi Arabia. The royal family holds 11 of the 23 ministries. Governed by a Sunni family, but most of the population is Shiite. In Saudi Arabia there is still no political parties, this is an example of how no citizen participation in state decisions.
expressed Xavier Serbia, "While many in the U.S. for what seems distant from Egypt, for those who lived or studied the events in the late 70's know the effects that erupted in the Middle East. The Iranian revolution and Iran-Iraq war had a serious influence on oil prices affecting the U.S. economy was in full production after being out of a recession in 1975. " The last global financial crisis, especially the severe economic situation began to cross U.S. after completion of the George Bush Jr. has not been completed, so that if the change of governments in the Arab oil leads to a rise in prices of oil, America will not be reset.
The Iranian project, sovereign defense nuclear deterrence, and obtaining a better geopolitical position, you can find at this juncture of popular rebellion cross the best time to take advantage of the fury of nations and lead to cohesion claims Shia gaining ground on the pretext of protecting them from the repressions unleashed, and looking for the rise of Islamic political parties. At the same time taking advantage of U.S. weakness before the collapse of their government-bastions.
So, it's unfortunate for the leadership of Barack Obama losing a historic opportunity to openly sympathizing with the wave of rebellions white to introduce democratic changes in the Arab region. The hesitation in the statements of this and the State Department explained by economic interests they have in the area with the Emirates and partner governments, also with the autocrats of the U.S. geopolitical enclaves built on oil. Protection to the death of Israel has made U.S. led to the crisis in the management of foreign policy. The halo Democrat Obama collapsed at this historical juncture. He is the inward reformer.
(*) Master in Political Science, Universidad Javeriana. Professor of Political Science, USC and University Libre.
